CoStar Reviews Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities for Stability
"Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities are a collection of single mortgage loans brought together into one “securitized” pool, then transferred to a trust. The trust issues a series of bonds that are sold to investors. Pooling the loans allows bond investors access to risk/reward combinations that are otherwise unavailable to them when investing in individual loans. It also decreases their risk of investing by creating a diverse range of property types, sizes, and markets. This in turn creates a much larger and more stable pool of mortgage money, affording borrowers access to larger loans with lower rates. But since your loan affects the return on these bonds, there are some rules about changes that can and cannot be made once your loan is securitized."
Historically CMBS loans have been fairly insulated from market flux because of such diversification. In 2008, distressed CMBS loans were at a historic low (less than 1%) as compared to distress in commercial bank and thrift loans (2.32%). Analysts believe however that this CMBS solidity may be eroding based on the recent CoStar review. CMBS loans placed in "special servicing" (some indication of delinquency) rose drastically from September 08 to November 08, increasing by about $1.2 billion (from 400m to 1.6b). Accounts with identifiable credit issues also nearly doubled. According to CoStar's research, they found a total of $8.2 billion in CMBS loans that were in some sort of delinquency (1,200 loans). They also identified 6,100 additional loans with a flag for credit concerns ($57.8 billion). Of some surprise was the states in which were experiencing trouble, CoStar expected to see problems in dense commercial centers yet the statistics appear to closer reflect trouble in those states where residential housing is already in crisis (such as Michigan), at least for now: Data Source: CoStar.com State, No. of Delinquent CMBS Loans Texas, 171 Florida, 126 Michigan, 83 California, 81 Georgia, 71 Ohio, 71 New York, 70 Nevada, 42 Arizona, 39 Illinois, 34 State, Number of Potential Problem Loans Texas, 890 California, 741 New York, 445 Florida, 432 Ohio, 269 Michigan, 247 Georgia, 219 Arizona, 212 Illinois, 180 Pennsylvania, 180 Delinquencies do appear to be fueled by the housing recession with multifamily loans being hit hardest. The overall assessment was that while CMBS loans remained fairly insulated throughout most of 2008, they will be exposed in 2009. Wall Street predicts a 300% increase in delinquencies this year. You'll find the complete CoStar Article here: CRE Loan Distress Levels Escalating Rapidly If your Ann Arbor commercial real estate is distressed, please don’t hesitate to call our Ann Arbor Short Sale experts. The process is confidential and free. You can start online at www.AnnArborShortSale.com or call the Toth Team at (734) 669-0337. We are here to help! Search all listings in Michigan with pictures and tours...Free! Kathy Toth & Team: Ann Arbor Area Real Estate Experts www.KathyToth.com Keller Williams Realty
